Work package 2

The main objectives of WP2 are to calculate selected indices (agriculture and forestry) and analyse extreme events for past and future climate in Europe-Russia-Turkey Region. On the basis of obtained results we will estimate regional climate trends and changes in biologically meaningful climate parameters and try to understand the relationship between Arctic climate change and mid-latitude temperature and precipitation extremes.

Work package 2.1. Estimation of current and projected future changes in climate and extreme events over the Europe-Russia-Turkey Region

We will focus on detailed regional analysis of current changes (1981-2010) in special climatic indices of agriculture and forest meteorological conditions: changes in hydrothermal regime and changes in growing season duration in Europe-Russia-Turkey Region based on RCM runs. Namely, we will analyze variability of the air, precipitation [Kolomits, 2010], evapotranspiration and aridity (De Martonne aridity index [De Martonne, 1926], Pinna combinative index [Zambakas, 1992], Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient [Selyaninov, 1958], Vorobyov Hydrothermal Index [Vorobyov, 1961]). Also, we will analyze changes in growing season duration. Extreme events will be analysed on the basis of observational data sets for Europe, Russia and Turkey, reanalysis data (ERA-Interim for 1981-2010), and the available RCMs simulations including the ones of WP1. The analysis will be focused on changes in extreme summer and winter events comparing extreme events during the recent past (1981-2010) and with the middle/end of this century. For some extreme events longer periods will be considered. The time series of climate extreme indices obtained from observational and reanalysis data will be analysed with the aim to estimate their variability and trends. The techniques used for the analysis of extremes are based on extreme value theory [Coles, 2001; Zamani et al, 2016] and their spatial analysis [Van de Vyver, 2012].

​​Work package 2.2. Understanding the relationship between Arctic climate change and mid-latitude temperature and precipitation extremes

In order to understand possible linkages between Arctic climate change and mid-latitude temperature and precipitation extremes, the hemispheric-scale relationships between anomalies in the surface temperature (Ts) and 2-m air temperature (T2m) or total precipitation (tp) in different regions in Europe and Asia will be studied. The Ts anomalies originate, among others, from sea ice and snow cover changes and from changes in open ocean Ts. The intended systematic analysis on the statistical effects of Ts anomalies over all Northern Hemisphere on T2m/tp will help to better understand the relative importance of the various factors and geographical regions that have contributed to the associations of surface changes with T2m in our key regions. In addition to basic regression analyses, we will apply Self-Organizing Maps [Gibson et al, 2017; Vihma et al, 2016] to find the optimal free-form relationships between anomalies in Ts and T2m/tp for extreme events.