Work package 1

A suitable set of high-resolution data for current and future climate conditions is necessary to provide robust climate information and investigate the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on agriculture and forestry. The main objective of this WP is therefore to provide a set of transient high-resolution climate simulations with the regional climate models (RCMs) for the region of Europe-Russia-Turkey. These will serve as an input for further analysis in WP2 and WP3.

Work package 1.1. Improved climate projections for the Europe-Russia-Turkey Region via new regional climate model (RCM) experiments

Within this task, partners will perform the coordinated transient simulations at resolutions of 0.44° and will explore options of downscaling to 0.22° or to 0.11°. The simulations with ALARO-0 and REMO will follow the experiment protocol of CORDEX. First, the models will be run for the ERA-interim period of 1979 to 2010; the results will be further used for the model evaluation in Task 1.2. To analyze the climate change signal, the transient historical (1979-2005) and scenario runs for different RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the period of 2006 to 2100 will be performed.

Work package 1.2. Evaluation and tailoring climate information

For users of climate scenarios it is important to have an idea of the robustness and accuracy of the climate change pattern. Therefore new simulations from Task 1.1 will be evaluated against both ERA-Interim reanalysis and observational data to estimate how the involved RCMs reproduce regional climate features. In order of tailoring obtained climate data for quantification impacts of climate change and climate extremes on the agriculture and forestry in study region (WP3) we plan to perform bias-correction of modelled data using observations.

© 2019 by AFTER.

The project is granted by the ERA.Net RUS Plus Initiative, ID 166